Monday, October 20, 2008

Election Prediction

For all of you who are watching this election closely, this note is for all of you. Tagged are those who take classes with me and those that might just care. If I didn't tag you then I am sorry but I was not really thinking about tagging but what I was going to write. Anyways, here it is.

On the first Tuesday in November 2008 there will be a General election to decide one of the most historic campaigns ever. and before the night is out, Barack Hussein (Steve for all you Al Smithies) Obama will be the next president of the United States. And with a huge majority of the vote.

Yes, I just said that. Now before the liberals start cheering and the conservatives explode, I want to give my reasons for this prediction.

Over the course of the past 2-3 years the democrats have been fighting tooth and nail to decide who is going to lead them to victory. It was only decided a scant 3 months ago who this would be. In the meantime, this has allowed Obama to gain a foundation of supporters who have been combating Clintonites from the start. These people are not going to change their vote, and are so deep in the Obama trench that it will take much more than a Joe Biden gaffe to get them out.

The Clinton supporters are bitter. They fought for 3 years to get their woman nominated only to fall by a hair. But they are not just bitter against Obama, they are even more bitter against the party that has been in control of the white house for 8 years. The GOP has foiled them for too long in their view and it is more important to them to vote for a Democrat than to allow another GOP president into DC. Some People say that Palin is a woman therefore Clinton supporters will vote for her. I am sorry for this language but besides their sexual organs, there is no similarity between Clinton and Palin. 99% of Clintonites will not change their vote. Those that do do not really believe in what they stand for.

The majority of voters, over 50% of them, are Independents. Come November, they will vote for Barack Obama. Why? I think because of several reasons:

1) He is a better speaker. Damn that man can speak. JFK effect on Nixon. Answers may be above his pay grade but when he sticks to his script (like Palin) he can be as persuasive as Morgan Freeman (anyone who has no idea hat I am talking about can go flush themselves down a toilet). The uninformed voter will see an amazing speaker not a man who has done very little. It simply will not matter.
2) He is Black. Yes I just said that. No one wants to look racist. Moderate Liberals who lean towards McCain will vote for Obama come November simply because he is black. The fear of being perceived as Racist is a huge. Being PC for many people is being normal. Voting for an old white guy will be un-PC. and yes, the vast majority of Black people will vote Obama. They already tend to vote liberal, so the fact that he is black will simply serve to reinforce their votes and pick up an even larger percentage of voters. Case and Point: Colin Powell has endorsed Obama.
3) No more Bush. Obama's campaign has nailed McCain on one talking point. He will be a continuation of Bush policies. As true or untrue as this may be, people buy it. They think of Bush policy and what do they see? They see Iraq, Patriot act, the recent stock market meltdown roller coaster and Scooter Libby. They see corruption and skyrocketing prices. And because of reason #1, when Barack Obama says that Bush=McCain, people believe him.

Some political theorists point to the Bradley effect. I seriously doubt that people will say that they are voting for Obama but then will turn and vote for McCain. I do think that many older people will do so, but not the youth. I am predicting that huge numbers of youth will turn out to vote this year and that there is where the difference will be made.

This recent economic crisis has also changed votes. Whether or not it is Bush's fault is beside the point. Reason #3 dictates what some people will do about it. It may be that it is unconstitutional money creation that has caused this, it may be over regulation, it maybe the free market; the fact is, people do not care what caused it. People care about WHO caused it. and while it may be that it was liberal policies, no one really know for sure. By the time the truth comes out, no one care. Obama will have 4 years to get ride of the blame or to direct it into a total of 8 years as president.

Personally, I am voting for McCain. It is because I am pro-life and wish to have a pro-life candidate that will place strict constitutionalists in the SC. But because my vote only counts for .0000000000375% of the vote, I doubt that it will make the difference needed to make sure the alternative is kept out.

Comment please if you wish, but please do not flame me nor each other.

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